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Welcome to research links. On these pages forum participants and the public can access useful readings and research material. Papers and further recommended readings may also be submitted for selected posting by everyone below.
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Recently recommended articles
Stuart Simpson
We should welcome China's growth, not fear it, The Independent
The politics of development, Culture Wars
Daniel Ben-Ami
Over a barrel, Fund Strategy
Selling out the 'bottom billion', Spiked
The following are recommended readings from past Emerging Economies forums. These remain a valuable library of links for developing an understanding of the Emerging Economies and how developments have been understood and interpreted.
Sunday 14 September
Patrick Hayes, Henley Business School MBA candidate and Promotions Manager of the Battle of Ideas, introduced Can India compete with China as an economic superpower?
Reading
Economist: India's economy - Turning Sour. Economist. July 2008
Economist: Backgrounder on India's economy. Economist. Aug 2008:
Nobrega, William: India will beat China - all in its own good time. Independent. July 2008:
Smith, David: The Dragon and the Elephant. Sunday Times. April 2007:
Further Reading
L. Alan Winters & Shahid Yusuf (eds) (2007) Dancing with Giants: China India and the Global Economy. World Bank / IPS [Especially C7 "Governance and Economic Growth" pp211-242]
David Smith (2007) The Dragon and the Elephant. Profile Books.
William Noberga & Ashish Sinha (2008) Riding the Indian Tiger: Understanding India, the World's Fastest Growing Market. John Wiley and Sons.
Sunday 3 August 2008
John Pender, who has published articles on World Bank development policy, introduced the Commission on Growth and Development Report
Reading
The Growth Report: Strategies For Sustained Growth And Inclusive Development
http://www.growthcommission.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=96&Itemid=169
Note: The text presented is a Conference Edition of the Report.
Additional articles by the commissioners and news coverage can be found here.
Growth challenge: FT Editorial
Wednesday 28 May 2008
Sheila Lewis, director of Volanti Consulting and co-producer of the Battle for China, introduced 'Is China the economic saviour of the 21st century?'
China and the Global Economic Recovery
Keynote Address by Anne O. Krueger, First Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund
At the American Enterprise Institute Seminar, Washington, D.C., January 10, 2005
The Rise of the Dragon: Inward and Outward Investment in China in the Reform Period - Kerry Brown
Brief look at the Chinese economy over the last 30 years. Kerry Brown is not an economist, so the book is short, readable and insightful.
Will China Fail? - John Lee
John Lee usefully distinguishes the different periods of growth in China between the late 1970s and today, highlighting some of the problems that have been created along the way. This book is tricky to get hold of in the UK. There is a small extract available here.
The view from the UK
A few short pieces that help to highlight some of the strengths and weaknesses of the UK economy in light of Chinese competition.
Britain needs an industrial route map
Economy: New brew helps region achieve prosperity
Globalisation and Europe: Prospering in the New Whirled Order
Useful background
Global Economics Paper No. 99: Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050
Goldman Sacks October, 2003
Will China and India conquer the world? Stuart Simpson
Martin Wolf - Associate Editor and Chief Economics Commentator
Two important articles by Martin Wolf. The first is often cited - Wolf compares China's growth to the growth of other Asian economies. China has not grown as fast. The second makes a useful point about how China has grown to become more integrated into the global economy, which is a key difference from the growth of other major economies.
Martin Wolf: China has further to grow By Martin Wolf, FT.com site Published: Apr 12, 2005
China's growth then has been far from spectacular by the standards of its smaller Asian neighbours.
Martin Wolf: Wide-awake China By Martin Wolf, FT.com site Published: Nov 11, 2003
China will be a bigger force in the world economy than Japan, not only because its potential is far larger but also because it will be far more deeply integrated within it.
James Kynge - former Beijing bureau chief of the FT, Author
Simple point but needs to be made - China is big and complicated.
Business Life: Nation that eludes simple explanations By James Kynge, Financial Times Published: Nov 01, 2006
Important reassessment of the size of China's economy. China's economy is 40% smaller after the reassessment. This is factually something that is very important to be aware of, if for no other reason than people who aren't aware of this end up sounding like they are not engaged with the current debate about China's economy.
The Limits of a Smaller, Poorer China
By Albert Keidel Financial Times, November 14, 2007
In a little-noticed mid-summer announcement, the Asian Development Bank presented official survey results indicating China's economy is smaller and poorer than established estimates say.
Sunday 27 April 2008
Joe Kaplinsky, co-author of Energise!, introduced 'Food and Commodities Inflation'
Key Reading
World Development Report 2008: Agriculture for Development
Special report: China's quest for resources
(You need a subscription to download the whole thing as a pdf. Otherwise you can click through to indicidual articles: China's resource hunger, Making the most of little, Australia comes to the party, Congo's comings and goings, Why China is welcome, China's intrepid explorers, Negative externalities, Doing more with less)
There is coverage in the news every day, e.g.:
http://news.google.co.uk/news?&q=food+prices
http://www.economist.com/world/international/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10925518
Additional reading
Richard Doornbosch and Ronald Steenblik, Biofuels: Is the cure worse than the disease, OECD, 2007
Is the Objective for European Agriculture Food, Environmental Security, or both?
- Opening Statement by Franz Fischler 27 March 2008
THE WORLD FOOD SITUATION: New Driving Forces and Required Actions
Goldman Sachs, Food, feed and fuel
The State of Food and Agriculture 2007
The State of Food and Agriculture 2006
More general background
Ester Boserup, The Conditions of Agricultural Growth, 1965
(More recent editions available)
Michael Williams, Deforesting the Earth, 2006 (abridged edition)
Thomas R. DeGregori, Green Myth vs. the Green Revolution
Thomas R. DeGregori, Recognizing a Giant of Our Time: A Tribute to Dr. Norman Borlaug
Bjorn Lomborg, The Skeptical Environmentalist, 2001. Chapter 10
Ellen Meiksins Wood, The Agrarian Origins of Capitalism, Monthly Review, July-August 1998
Millenium Ecosystem Assessment, Volume Three: Policy Responses, 2003
Sunday 30 March 2008
Daniel Ben-Ami, finance and economics journalist and author, Cowardly Capitalism: The Myth of the Global Financial Casino introduced 'Global Equality'
Reading
Overall empirical discussion
Deaton, Angus. Is world poverty falling? (Point of View). (Examining the statistics). (Statistical Data Included): An article from: Finance & Development. Washington: International Monetary Fund, 2002.
Kaplinsky, Raphael. Globalization, Poverty and Inequality: Between a Rock and a Hard Place. Cambridge: Polity, 2007.
Loungani, Prakash. Inequality: now you see it, now you don't. (Back To Basics; economics): An article from: Finance & Development. Washington: International Monetary Fund, 2003.
World Development Report 2006: Equity And Development (World Development Report). New York: World Bank Publications, 2005.
World Economic Outlook, October 2007: Globalization and Inequality (World Economic Outlook): Intl Monetary Fund, 2007.
Inequality is widening/underestimated
Wade, Robert Hunter. The Rising Inequality of World Income Distribution. (Point of view).(Statistical Data Included): An article from: Finance & Development. Washington: International Monetary Fund, 2001.
Pogge, Thomas and Reddy, Sanjay G. How Not to Count the Poor, 2005.
Inequality is narrowing/overestimated
Dollar, David, and Aart Kraay. Trade, Growth, and Poverty.: An article from: Finance & Development. Washington: International Monetary Fund, 2001.
Zettelmeyer, Jeromin. Bhalla versus the World Bank: an outsider's perspective. (Imagine There's No Country--Poverty, inequality and Growth In the Era of Globalization)(Book Review): An article from: Finance & Development. Washington: International Monetary Fund, 2003.
The redefinition of inequality, Collier, Paul. The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries are Failing and What Can Be Done About It. London: Oxford University Press, 2007.
Sachs, Jeffrey. The End of Poverty: Economic Possibilities for Our Time. London: Penguin, 2006.
Sen, Amartya. Inequality Reexamined (Russell Sage Foundation Books). Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2007.
Sunday 2 March 2008
Michael Savage, Head of Credit Policy, FMD Credit Risk, Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets, introduced 'The Credit Crunch'
Key issues and reading
The credit crunch has developed very recently, so there are few accurate, comprehensive and balanced accounts. Wikipedia is a good place to start; it is more comprehensive and accurate than any of the journalistic accounts that I have found.
An overview of imbalances is available here.
The IMF's World Economic Outlook is useful background, particularly Chapter 1
This document discusses some of the arguments about the extent to which imbalances matter.
As alluded to in the last discussion, one view is that imbalances arise not because Americans are voracious consumers, nor even necessarily because the Chinese are consciously trying to promote exports, but rather because there is a savings glut in the emerging markets. It has become the orthodox position in the economic literature.
This recent speech by the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve considers the issue in the context of recent market turmoil: It refers back to an earlier speech, available here.
The development between the two is interesting. This article discusses the debate, and the book under review remains influential in the debate.
A final issue to consider is whether the increasing role of finance in the world economy (and especially in the UK economy) is problematic. Popular criticism is widespread (e.g. Naomi Klein's 'The Shock Doctrine', or billionaire investor Warren Buffet's characterisation of derivatives as 'financial weapons of mass destruction'). Others argue that financial innovation has supported the growth and stability of the world economy. Alan Greenspan is particularly associated with this view, e.g. in his recent book 'Age of Turbulence'.
Additional Reading
Some other accounts of the Credit Crunch:
An easily accessible guide from the FT.
This article is more critical of the role of the financial markets in the economy.
Useful speech from the New York Federal Reserve.
Recent European Central Bank paper. Some of this is fairly technical, but there is an accessible summary.
This makes the case that concerns about the US deficit are exaggerated.
Sunday 27 January 2008
Stuart Simpson, convenor of the Emerging Economies Forum, introduced ‘Understanding Future Shifts'
Reading
Goldman Sachs, Global Economics Paper No. 99: Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050
The Economist, A less fiery dragon?, Nov 29th 2007
IMF Survey Magazine: Emerging Markets Main Engine of Growth
Financial Times, Martin Wolf: World needs independent Fund
Fair Trade for All: How Trade Can Promote Development, Joseph E. Stiglitz: Chapters 3,4 & 12