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Global warming will
be an environmental disaster for us all. We have a responsibility to conserve
the rainforest as one of the measures to halt global warming.
Global
warming is possibly the single greatest threat ever to the future of life
on the planet. Its ultimate consequences have been compared by eminent
scientists at the 1988 Toronto Conference on the Changing Atmosphere as
second only to a global nuclear war. Existing legal mechanisms
and institutions are inadequate to control global warming. Human
actions are altering the global environment in ways that have many unknown
implications. With increasing human population, consumption and trade
the impacts of these actions will grow.
It
is now universally recognised that our planet is warming up and that this
could have disastrous consequences. Since 1988 government leaders have
sponsored a forum of scientific experts known as the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This panel of experts has produced incontrovertible
evidence on global warming and has pointed out the dangers it poses for
our future well-being and for that of the planets environment. Today
global warming is mainly the result of modern development. Human beings
have messed up their own atmosphere but they also have the solution for
putting it right.
People
in Britain will have experienced another long hot and dry summer. This
is now a regular occurrence. Since 1980 we have experienced ten of the
warmest years this century. According to the World Meteorological Organisation,
1995 was recorded as the hottest year. The Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change has stated the rate of warming will probably be greater
than any seen in the last 10,000 years. The global temperature is
projected to rise by 2.05°C by the year 2100.
Ecosystems
will find it hard to adapt to these rapid changes. Rising temperatures
are likely to lead to more floods and droughts. Snow and ice cover in
the Northern hemisphere and Arctic is melting rapidly. According to Greenpeace,
the Bering Glacier has thinned by almost 600 feet in the past 50 years.
As a result of melting glaciers and the thermal expansion of the oceans
there will be a massive rise in global sea levels. What is certain is
that the rise in sea levels will be a threat to islands and many countries,
like Bangladesh, whose geography puts them at particular risk. As a result
a huge loss of life is predicted.
Some
scientists even predict that due to the forecasted increases in temperatures
in Northern Europe, as a consequence of global warming, tropical diseases
such as cholera, maleria and leishmaniasis could become widespread. In
1991 an outbreak of cholera in Peru is attributed to the warming of coastal
waters and the increased dumping of phosphate and nitrate wastes. These
factors are believed to have aided the growth of algae which acts as a
host to the cholera bacteria. A recent increase in malaria cases in New
York has also concerned scientists about the possible effects of global
warming. (from Independent, 26.9.97, which cites a report by Profs Tony
McMichael and Andrew Haines from their article in the British Medical
Journal)
Understandably,
most public interest is directed at how global change will affect our
immediate environment. Nevertheless, the nature of modern economies requires
a global perspective. Agriculture and the food processing industry are
increasingly sensitive to environmental changes on a worldwide basis,
via effects on commodity prices. The insurance and underwriting business
similarly operates on the global scale.
For
the financial sector generally, investment returns are calculated over
very long time horizons, for example with regard to pension funds. So
global warming will hit the average person in their pocket.
The
greenhouse effect causes global warming. Greenhouse gases (mainly carbon
dioxide) are produced both naturally and by humans. The earths natural
greenhouse effect traps some of the suns heat in the lower atmosphere,
without this heat the earth would be a cold and barren place. Problems
arose with the greenhouse effect when modern society started to produce
massive amounts of energy through the burning of fossil fuels and when
forests are cut and cleared, this greatly increased the level of greenhouse
gases. As a result more of the suns heat is being trapped near the
earths surface. This trapped heat has in turn led to higher temperatures
and rising sea levels. Direct attribution of these temperature changes
to human activities is complicated by the fact that climate varies naturally
from year to year and from decade to decade. Long term human-induced warming
has to be distinguished against this natural background. Although we do
not have data reaching back many hundreds of years, by comparing observations
of global mean temperatures with natural variability estimated from climate
models, we find the warming has, over the past couple of decades, extended
beyond the bounds of our estimates of natural variability.
As the Governments chief scientific adviser says, quite small changes
can have a large but difficult to predict, influence on local climate
change. Conversely, it is possible that small changes in regional climate
could result in large and possibly abrupt, changes in ocean circulation
patterns. All this introduces major uncertainties, particularly at the
regional level. Such change could modify the fluid dynamics which ultimately
drive the Gulf Stream which transports towards the British Isles free
heat which amounts to 27,000 times the total power generation capacity
of the UK! The possibility that this might be significantly reduced, much
less turned off, is an awesome prospect.
Cutting
down on the emission of these dangerous gases makes sense and can be achieved
through global agreement. In 1992 at the United Nations Conference on
the Environment and Development it was recognised that the issue of global
warming was central to the sustainable development of the planet. International
agreements on measures to stop global warming were discussed at a summit
in Kyoto, Japan, in December 1997.
The future development of the Amazon rainforest was important to this
summit. Deforestation in the Amazon is a major concern. The Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change has reported that changes in tropical land use
are responsible for 15 per cent of man-made greenhouse gas emissions (man-made
emissions are referred to as anthropogenic emissions). The Amazon rainforest
also plays an important role in absorbing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
Sustainable methods of development in Amazonia, which allow the conservation
of much of the rainforest, will make an important contribution towards
solving the problem of global warming.
The
future of our planet is at stake and we need to take preventative measures
now. Coming to an agreement continues to be a difficult task. Many developing
countries, such as Brazil, believe that the developed world is at an advantage
and that restrictions of greenhouse gas emissions will slow down much-needed
development in their countries. This is an understandable concern but
the problem of global warming remains a global priority not least because
developing countries could face the most destructive effects. Western
countries therefore have a moral responsibility to fully involve developing
countries in the decision-making processes. Probably the best solution
would be the monitoring and enforcement of a global emissions policy carried
out under the auspices of the United Nations.
The
results of the Kyoto summit reveal that major developed countries such
as the USA are not taking the threat of global warming seriously enough.
They are putting the short-term interests of their industrial development
before the long-term interests of the planet and humanity as a whole.
We cannot afford to wait for the link between greenhouse gases and climate
change to be conclusively proven. We cannot and should not wait until
the worst effects of global warming are upon us before we act. We must
take immediate precautionary measures now if we are to avoid a global
disaster.

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